Feyenoord v AC Sparta Praha
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Feyenoord beat AC Sparta Praha 4–2, the SharpXI model made 9 confident calls on the player markets and 5 landed — the strongest being Veljko Birmančević for 1+ shots total (83%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Qazim Laci for 1+ tackles (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
14 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veljko Birmančević | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Veljko Birmančević | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Qazim Laci | tackles | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Qazim Laci | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
| Veljko Birmančević | fouls drawn | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
| Veljko Birmančević | fouls committed | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Qazim Laci | fouls drawn | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Qazim Laci | fouls committed | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Veljko Birmančević | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 2 | ✓ |
| Qazim Laci | shots on target | 1+ | 36% | 0 | ✗ |
| Veljko Birmančević | sot outside box | 1+ | 26% | 1 | ✓ |
| Qazim Laci | sot outside box | 1+ | 21% | 0 | ✗ |
| Qazim Laci | cards | — | 20% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Veljko Birmančević | cards | — | 17% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target Sot outside box Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 10% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Feyenoord v AC Sparta Praha?
5 of its 9 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Feyenoord v AC Sparta Praha?
The most confident call it got wrong was Qazim Laci at 77% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.