Inter v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Inter lost to Arsenal 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Mikel Merino for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Davide Frattesi for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davide Frattesi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcus Thuram | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pio Esposito | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Jesus | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Jesus | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bukayo Saka | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 5 | ✓ |
| Lautaro Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lautaro Martínez | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alessandro Bastoni | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bukayo Saka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcus Thuram | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jurriën Timber | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pio Esposito | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 28% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Inter 1–0 Arsenal Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Inter v Arsenal?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Inter v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Davide Frattesi at 84% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.