Pafos FC v SK Slavia Praha
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Pafos FC beat SK Slavia Praha 4–1, the SharpXI model made 12 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Muhammed-Cham Saračević for 1+ shots total (85%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mislav Oršić for 1+ fouls drawn (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Domingos Quina | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Domingos Quina | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mislav Oršić | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Domingos Quina | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mislav Oršić | shots on target | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daiki Hashioka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | shots on target | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daiki Hashioka | fouls committed | 1+ | 56% | 1 | ✓ |
| Muhammed-Cham Saračević | fouls committed | 1+ | 49% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Zima | fouls committed | 1+ | 49% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Pafos FC v SK Slavia Praha?
10 of its 12 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Pafos FC v SK Slavia Praha?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mislav Oršić at 76% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.