Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Paris Saint-Germain lost to Borussia Dortmund 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Marco Reus for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Ramos | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bradley Barcola | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karim Adeyemi | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marco Asensio | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mats Hummels | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Emre Can | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Niclas Füllkrug | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marco Reus | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marco Reus | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 6 | ✓ |
| Marcel Sabitzer | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 69% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Paris Saint-Germain May 2024
- Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Paris Saint-Germain Dec 2023
- Paris Saint-Germain 2–0 Borussia Dortmund Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Paris Saint-Germain v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Marco Reus at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.