PSV Eindhoven v RC Lens
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven beat RC Lens 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Salis Abdul Samed for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Deiver Machado for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiver Machado | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Salis Abdul Samed | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elye Wahi | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Florian Sotoca | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Deiver Machado | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Angelo Fulgini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Facundo Medina | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elye Wahi | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Angelo Fulgini | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergiño Dest | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonathan Gradit | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adrien Thomasson | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 86% | 10 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 34% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RC Lens 1–1 PSV Eindhoven Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v RC Lens?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v RC Lens?
The most confident call it got wrong was Deiver Machado at 85% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.