RC Lens v PSV Eindhoven
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RC Lens drew with PSV Eindhoven 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Wesley Saïd for 1+ shots total (83%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Hirving Lozano for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Saïd | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hirving Lozano | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Sotoca | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elye Wahi | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Angelo Fulgini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Deiver Machado | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hirving Lozano | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergiño Dest | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Deiver Machado | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Angelo Fulgini | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Salis Abdul Samed | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 6 | ✓ |
| Adrien Thomasson | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Florian Sotoca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jerdy Schouten | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 46% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- PSV Eindhoven 1–0 RC Lens Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RC Lens v PSV Eindhoven?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RC Lens v PSV Eindhoven?
The most confident call it got wrong was Hirving Lozano at 77% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.