PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before PSV Eindhoven beat Shakhtar Donetsk 3–2, the SharpXI model made 5 confident calls on the player markets and 3 landed — the strongest being Ricardo Pepi for 1+ shots total (78%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Ricardo Pepi for 1+ fouls drawn (63%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pepi | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pepi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Pepi | fouls committed | 1+ | 55% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Pepi | shots on target | 1+ | 54% | 4 | ✓ |
| Rick Karsdorp | shots total | 1+ | 53% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rick Karsdorp | fouls drawn | 1+ | 46% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rick Karsdorp | fouls committed | 1+ | 46% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rick Karsdorp | shots on target | 1+ | 23% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rick Karsdorp | cards | — | 16% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Ricardo Pepi | cards | — | 13% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots on target · Cards
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 53% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 52% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk?
3 of its 5 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on PSV Eindhoven v Shakhtar Donetsk?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ricardo Pepi at 63% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.