Qarabağ FK v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Qarabağ FK lost to AFC Ajax 2–4, the SharpXI model made 6 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Lucas Rosa for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Ko Itakura for 1+ fouls committed (64%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rosa | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 5 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ko Itakura | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasper Dolberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ko Itakura | shots total | 1+ | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots on target | 1+ | 46% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | fouls committed | 1+ | 44% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Rosa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 41% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | shots on target | 1+ | 37% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Rosa | shots total | 1+ | 36% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raúl Moro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 33% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ko Itakura | fouls drawn | 1+ | 27% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn · Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 68% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 12% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Qarabağ FK v AFC Ajax?
4 of its 6 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Qarabağ FK v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ko Itakura at 64% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.