Qarabağ FK v AFC Ajax
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Qarabağ FK lost to AFC Ajax 2–4, the SharpXI model made 12 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Kasper Dolberg for 1+ shots total (93%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Ko Itakura for 1+ fouls committed (66%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper Dolberg | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Rosa | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Rosa | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 6 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ko Itakura | tackles | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ko Itakura | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasper Dolberg | tackles | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raúl Moro | tackles | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasper Dolberg | shots on target | 1+ | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ko Itakura | shots total | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasper Dolberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raúl Moro | fouls committed | 1+ | 49% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raúl Moro | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Tackles Shots on target Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 68% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 12% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Qarabağ FK 0–3 AFC Ajax Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Qarabağ FK v AFC Ajax?
8 of its 12 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Qarabağ FK v AFC Ajax?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ko Itakura at 66% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.