RB Leipzig v Man City
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RB Leipzig lost to Man City 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Erling Haaland for 1+ shots total (81%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Yussuf Poulsen for 1+ fouls drawn (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jack Grealish | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodri | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yussuf Poulsen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Xaver Schlager | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Loïs Openda | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Grealish | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Phil Foden | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 6 | ✓ |
| Timo Werner | shots total | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emil Forsberg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Loïs Openda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Šeško | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yussuf Poulsen | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emil Forsberg | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 16% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man City 3–2 RB Leipzig Nov 2023
- Man City 7–0 RB Leipzig Mar 2023
- RB Leipzig 1–1 Man City Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RB Leipzig v Man City?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RB Leipzig v Man City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yussuf Poulsen at 72% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.