Real Madrid v FC Bayern München
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Madrid lost to FC Bayern München 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Harry Kane for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jude Bellingham for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Serge Gnabry | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 7 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Harry Kane | shots on target | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dayot Upamecano | tackles | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Arda Güler | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 78% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 77% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Bayern München 4–3 Real Madrid Apr 2026
- Real Madrid 2–1 FC Bayern München May 2024
- FC Bayern München 2–2 Real Madrid Apr 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Madrid v FC Bayern München?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Madrid v FC Bayern München?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jude Bellingham at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.