SK Sturm Graz v Sporting CP
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SK Sturm Graz lost to Sporting CP 0–2, the SharpXI model made 10 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Viktor Gyökeres for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Morten Hjulmand for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 6 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lovro Zvonarek | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morten Hjulmand | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lovro Zvonarek | fouls drawn | 1+ | 60% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | fouls drawn | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lovro Zvonarek | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | fouls committed | 1+ | 52% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 2 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | shots total | 1+ | 48% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lovro Zvonarek | shots on target | 1+ | 32% | 0 | ✗ |
| Emanuel Aiwu | shots total | 1+ | 23% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total · Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 95% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 30% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 21% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SK Sturm Graz v Sporting CP?
7 of its 10 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SK Sturm Graz v Sporting CP?
The most confident call it got wrong was Morten Hjulmand at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.