Sporting CP v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this UEFA Champions League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sporting CP lost to Arsenal 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Viktor Gyökeres for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Noni Madueke for 1+ shots total (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Gyökeres | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Riccardo Calafiori | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kai Havertz | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kai Havertz | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 4 | ✓ |
| Noni Madueke | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leandro Trossard | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noni Madueke | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kai Havertz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martin Ødegaard | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 1 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Arsenal 0–0 Sporting CP Apr 2026
- Sporting CP 1–5 Arsenal Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sporting CP v Arsenal?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sporting CP v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Noni Madueke at 72% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the UEFA Champions League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.