Shots on target — the model, the value and how to read the odds
Shots on target is the most-modelled player market in the Championship bet builder, and one of the most frequently mispriced. SharpXI turns four seasons of shot data into a true probability for a player's 1+ or 2+ shots on target, so you can spot when the price is generous.
How SharpXI models it
We build a recency-weighted per-90 rate for the player, shrink it toward a positional prior when the sample is thin, scale it by projected minutes, then apply an opponent factor for how many shots on target that defence tends to concede. A Negative Binomial distribution (which handles the over-dispersion real shot data shows) gives P(shots on target ≥ line), and Shin's method strips the bookmaker margin before we compare it to the price.
Go deeper: How we model shots on target →
Where the value tends to sit
Attackers against leaky defences, and midfielders whose shot volume the market under-rates, are where the edge tends to sit. The line matters: 1+ is a high-probability, short-price leg; 2+ swings on minutes and role.
Championship — how this market behaves
Across 14,299 graded Championship predictions from the 25/26 season, a player recorded 1+ shot on target in 23.4% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 14.2% here, against La Liga 17.9%, Premier League 15.4% and Serie A 14.5% — the league where shots on target are hardest to call. Match cards is this league's weakest market, and its page says so.
Championship leaders this season
In the 25/26 Championship season, Mohamed Touré (Norwich) leads for shots on target at 2.12 per 90, ahead of Ellis Simms (1.85) and Vivaldo (1.79). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Touré | Norwich | 2.12 | 64% |
| Ellis Simms | Coventry City | 1.85 | 44% |
| Vivaldo | Watford | 1.79 | 42% |
| Patrick Bamford | Sheffield United | 1.67 | 82% |
| Adam Armstrong | Southampton | 1.63 | 66% |
| Makenzie Kirk | Portsmouth | 1.50 | 43% |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | Ipswich | 1.48 | 57% |
| Ross Stewart | Southampton | 1.47 | 48% |
| Cyle Larin | Southampton | 1.42 | 61% |
| Mathias Kvistgaarden | Norwich | 1.41 | 33% |
| Mohamed Belloumi | Hull City | 1.35 | 56% |
| Rocco Vata | Watford | 1.35 | 33% |
Frequently asked
What does 1+ shots on target mean?
It's a bet that the player has at least one shot on target in the match. 2+ means at least two. SharpXI models the probability of each line separately.
How does SharpXI decide a shots-on-target price is value?
It compares its own modelled probability with the de-vigged (margin-removed) implied probability of the bookmaker's price. When the model's number is higher, the leg is flagged as value — with a confidence rating from the sample size.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.