What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Championship striker, 25/26, 2,430 appearances
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Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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In 26/27, Cyle Larin has hit 1+ shot on target in 88% of 8 Championship appearances (7 of 8), 1+ total shot in 100%, 1+ foul committed in 88%, 1+ foul won in 50%, and been booked in 25% (2 of 8). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Cyle Larin in Championship, 26/27 — drawn from 18 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyle LarinSouthampton | 8 | 4.97 | 2.11 |
| Will LankshearMiddlesbrough | 8 | 3.46 | 1.86 |
| Yousef SalechCardiff City | 8 | 3.09 | 1.41 |
| Lorent TolajBristol City | 8 | 4.39 | 2.93 |
| Valentín CastellanosWest Ham United | 8 | 2.97 | 1.98 |
| Mohamed TouréNorwich City | 7 | 2.17 | 0.99 |
| These 5, combined | 3.25 | 1.85 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Cyle Larin featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Wrexham19 Sep | 86 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bristol City12 Sep | 78 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Swansea City8 Sep | 85 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Lincoln City5 Sep | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Birmingham City1 Sep | 69 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Millwall29 Aug | 70 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Stoke City22 Aug | 78 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Watford16 Aug | 70 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Middlesbrough12 May | 36 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| @ Middlesbrough9 May | 60 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 1 current Championship official — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Championship referees
Frequently asked
How often does Cyle Larin have a shot on target?
In 26/27, Cyle Larin has hit 1+ shot on target in 88% of 8 Championship appearances (7 of 8). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Cyle Larin average?
Across 8 Championship appearances in 26/27, Cyle Larin is averaging 1.81 shots on target and 4.97 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Cyle Larin get booked?
Cyle Larin is averaging 0.30 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Cyle Larin commit or win more fouls?
This season Cyle Larin commits 2.11 fouls per 90 and wins 0.75 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Cyle Larin?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Cyle Larin plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.