Player to be carded — where the referee is the edge
"To be carded" is a binary market — will the player pick up a booking — and it's where the single most mispriced factor in football betting lives: the referee. SharpXI builds a booking probability that puts the official front and centre.
How SharpXI models it
We take the player's recency-weighted booking rate, shrink it for small samples, then multiply by the referee's card tendency and an opponent factor, plus a modest derby multiplier where warranted. A Poisson booking model gives P(at least one card); the price is de-vigged before comparison, and isotonic calibration keeps the tail honest.
Go deeper: How we model player cards → · Current referee card profiles →
Where the value tends to sit
Bookmakers price cards mostly off the player and the fixture; strict referees are systematically under-weighted. A combative midfielder under a card-happy official is the archetypal edge.
Championship — how this market behaves
Across 14,299 graded Championship predictions from the 25/26 season, a player recorded to be carded in 14.0% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 0.6% here, against Premier League 0.6%, Serie A -0.4% and La Liga -0.6% — the league where the model reads to be carded best. Match cards is this league's weakest market, and its page says so.
Championship leaders this season
In the 25/26 Championship season, Enis Destan (Hull City) leads for cards at 0.77 per 90, ahead of Joe Bryan (0.72) and Delano Burgzorg (0.66). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enis Destan | Hull City | 0.77 | 22% |
| Joe Bryan | Millwall | 0.72 | 32% |
| Delano Burgzorg | Bristol City | 0.66 | 27% |
| John Lundstram | Hull City | 0.58 | 28% |
| Ben Pearson | Stoke City | 0.57 | 39% |
| Nestory Irankunda | Watford | 0.57 | 32% |
| Oscar Fraulo | Derby County | 0.56 | 16% |
| Luke Le Roux | Portsmouth | 0.54 | 29% |
| Joe Rankin-Costello | Charlton Athletic | 0.54 | 22% |
| Maksym Talovierov | Stoke City | 0.54 | 44% |
| Cameron Pring | Bristol City | 0.53 | 36% |
| Junior Tchamadeu | Stoke City | 0.53 | 46% |
Frequently asked
Is there a 2+ cards market for a player?
No — a player being carded twice means a red, which is rare and priced differently. SharpXI models the honest market: whether the player is carded at all.
Why does the referee matter so much for cards?
Card counts vary far more by referee than most punters assume, and the market is slow to fully price it. SharpXI uses each referee's booking tendency directly.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.