Fouls committed — modelling a player's foul count
Player fouls committed (1+, 2+) rewards knowing which players actually give away free kicks — and against whom. SharpXI models the foul rate and the opponent's tendency to draw fouls.
How SharpXI models it
A recency-weighted per-90 foul rate, shrunk toward a positional prior, scaled by minutes and adjusted by how many fouls the opposition tends to draw. A Negative Binomial gives P(fouls ≥ line); Shin de-vig removes the margin.
Go deeper: How we model fouls →
Where the value tends to sit
Defensive midfielders and full-backs against pacey, dribble-heavy opponents are the natural home of foul value — the sort of match-up detail the market glosses over.
Championship — how this market behaves
Across 14,299 graded Championship predictions from the 25/26 season, a player recorded 1+ foul committed in 50.7% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 14.5% here, against Serie A 15.2%, La Liga 14.6% and Premier League 14.3%. Match cards is this league's weakest market, and its page says so.
Championship leaders this season
In the 25/26 Championship season, Róbert Boženík (Stoke City) leads for fouls committed at 3.94 per 90, ahead of Lars-Jørgen Salvesen (3.23) and Massimo Luongo (3.17). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Róbert Boženík | Stoke City | 3.94 | 86% |
| Lars-Jørgen Salvesen | Derby County | 3.23 | 52% |
| Massimo Luongo | Millwall | 3.17 | 78% |
| Oscar Fraulo | Derby County | 2.98 | 53% |
| Axel Henriksson | Blackburn Rovers | 2.78 | 61% |
| Luke Berry | Charlton Athletic | 2.76 | 50% |
| David Akintola | Hull City | 2.70 | 55% |
| Lyndon Dykes | Birmingham City | 2.52 | 43% |
| Zeidane Inoussa | Swansea City | 2.49 | 72% |
| Enis Destan | Hull City | 2.49 | 39% |
| Harvey Knibbs | Charlton Athletic | 2.48 | 54% |
| Raees Bangura-Williams | Millwall | 2.47 | 57% |
Frequently asked
What counts as a foul committed?
A foul the player concedes, per the match-data provider. Fouls won (drawn) are a separate market.
Are fouls a good bet-builder leg?
They can be strong value because the market prices them coarsely, but sample sizes vary — SharpXI shows a confidence rating so you can weight thin data appropriately.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.