Arsenal v Crystal Palace
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Arsenal drew with Crystal Palace 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Tyrick Mitchell for 1+ tackles (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Justin Devenny for 1+ tackles (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrick Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Justin Devenny | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adam Wharton | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Jesus | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Bukayo Saka | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eddie Nketiah | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maxence Lacroix | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chris Richards | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yéremy Pino | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eberechi Eze | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Martinelli | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathaniel Clyne | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal May 2026
- Arsenal 1–0 Crystal Palace Oct 2025
- Arsenal 2–2 Crystal Palace Apr 2025
- Crystal Palace 1–5 Arsenal Dec 2024
- Arsenal 3–2 Crystal Palace Dec 2024
- Arsenal 5–0 Crystal Palace Jan 2024
- Crystal Palace 0–1 Arsenal Aug 2023
- Arsenal 4–1 Crystal Palace Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Arsenal v Crystal Palace?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Arsenal v Crystal Palace?
The most confident call it got wrong was Justin Devenny at 94% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.