Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Aston Villa lost to Crystal Palace 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Tyrick Mitchell for 1+ tackles (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Eddie Nketiah for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrick Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Will Hughes | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 8 | ✓ |
| Daniel Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Eddie Nketiah | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jhon Durán | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Eddie Nketiah | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daichi Kamada | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 6 | ✓ |
| Adam Wharton | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jeffrey Schlupp | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eddie Nketiah | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Will Hughes | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daichi Kamada | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 2026
- Aston Villa 0–3 Crystal Palace Aug 2025
- Crystal Palace 4–1 Aston Villa Feb 2025
- Aston Villa 2–2 Crystal Palace Nov 2024
- Crystal Palace 5–0 Aston Villa May 2024
- Aston Villa 3–1 Crystal Palace Sep 2023
- Aston Villa 1–0 Crystal Palace Mar 2023
- Crystal Palace 3–1 Aston Villa Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Aston Villa v Crystal Palace?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Aston Villa v Crystal Palace?
The most confident call it got wrong was Eddie Nketiah at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.