Bournemouth v Liverpool
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bournemouth lost to Liverpool 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Darwin Núñez for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Alexis Mac Allister for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darwin Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cody Gakpo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexis Mac Allister | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Salah | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alex Scott | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antoine Semenyo | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Philip Billing | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cody Gakpo | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexis Mac Allister | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcus Tavernier | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Curtis Jones | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Harvey Elliott | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dominic Solanke | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool Sep 2026
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool Jan 2026
- Liverpool 4–2 Bournemouth Aug 2025
- Bournemouth 0–2 Liverpool Feb 2025
- Liverpool 3–0 Bournemouth Sep 2024
- Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool Jan 2024
- Liverpool 3–1 Bournemouth Aug 2023
- Bournemouth 1–0 Liverpool Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bournemouth v Liverpool?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bournemouth v Liverpool?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alexis Mac Allister at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.