Brentford v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Brentford lost to Arsenal 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Mathias Jensen for 1+ tackles (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Mads Roerslev for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathias Jensen | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Christian Nørgaard | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bryan Mbeumo | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yoane Wissa | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 7 | ✓ |
| Mads Roerslev | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aaron Hickey | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Pinnock | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Saman Ghoddos | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vitaly Janelt | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathan Collins | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorginho | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 7 | ✓ |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Brentford 1–1 Arsenal Feb 2026
- Arsenal 2–0 Brentford Dec 2025
- Arsenal 1–1 Brentford Apr 2025
- Brentford 1–3 Arsenal Jan 2025
- Arsenal 2–1 Brentford Mar 2024
- Brentford 0–1 Arsenal Nov 2023
- Arsenal 1–1 Brentford Feb 2023
- Brentford 0–3 Arsenal Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Brentford v Arsenal?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Brentford v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mads Roerslev at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.