Brentford v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Brentford drew with Aston Villa 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Yehor Yarmoliuk for 1+ tackles (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ollie Watkins for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yehor Yarmoliuk | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antoni Milambo | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Frank Onyeka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dango Ouattara | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Harvey Elliott | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fabio Carvalho | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Aaron Hickey | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fabio Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ollie Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Reiss Nelson | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Frank Onyeka | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Evann Guessand | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rico Henry | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford Feb 2026
- Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa Aug 2025
- Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa Mar 2025
- Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford Dec 2024
- Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford Apr 2024
- Brentford 1–2 Aston Villa Dec 2023
- Brentford 1–1 Aston Villa Apr 2023
- Aston Villa 4–0 Brentford Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Brentford v Aston Villa?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Brentford v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ollie Watkins at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.