Brighton v Wolves
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Brighton beat Wolves 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being João Gomes for 1+ tackles (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mario Lemina for 1+ tackles (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Gomes | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mario Lemina | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Julio Enciso | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matt Doherty | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlos Baleba | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mats Wieffer | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jakub Moder | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Nélson Semedo | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rodrigo Gomes | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Sarabia | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Simon Adingra | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Carlos Forbs | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danny Welbeck | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Brighton 3–0 Wolves May 2026
- Wolves 1–1 Brighton Oct 2025
- Wolves 0–2 Brighton May 2025
- Brighton 2–2 Wolves Oct 2024
- Brighton 0–0 Wolves Jan 2024
- Wolves 1–4 Brighton Aug 2023
- Brighton 6–0 Wolves Apr 2023
- Wolves 2–3 Brighton Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Brighton v Wolves?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Brighton v Wolves?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mario Lemina at 94% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.