EFL Cup 24/25

Bristol City v Coventry City

How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.

Bristol City0 – 1 Coventry City 13 Aug 2024

11~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Bristol City lost to Coventry City 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Taylor Gardner-Hickman for 1+ tackles (88%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Joe Williams for 1+ tackles (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials

James Bell refereed this match

5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Joe Williams	tackles	1+	89%	0	✗
Taylor Gardner-Hickman	tackles	1+	88%	1	✓
Josh Eccles	tackles	1+	84%	2	✓
George Tanner	tackles	1+	84%	0	✗
Ellis Simms	shots total	1+	84%	1	✓
Haji Wright	shots total	1+	84%	2	✓
Brandon Thomas-Asante	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Kasey Palmer	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Nahki Wells	shots total	1+	83%	3	✓
Fábio Tavares	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Fally Mayulu	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Sam Bell	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Jack Rudoni	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Anis Mehmeti	shots total	1+	83%	1	✓

How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total

Dig deeper

Bristol City & Coventry City player stats→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Coventry City?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Coventry City?

The most confident call it got wrong was Joe Williams at 89% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works