Bristol City v Norwich
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bristol City lost to Norwich 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Nahki Wells for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ashley Barnes for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nahki Wells | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ashley Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephraim Yeboah | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harry Cornick | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anis Mehmeti | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nahki Wells | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anis Mehmeti | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tony Springett | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Bell | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephraim Yeboah | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rob Dickie | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcelino Núñez | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Williams | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bristol City 2–4 Norwich Apr 2026
- Norwich 0–1 Bristol City Oct 2025
- Bristol City 2–1 Norwich Mar 2025
- Norwich 0–2 Bristol City Nov 2024
- Norwich 1–1 Bristol City Apr 2024
- Bristol City 1–2 Norwich Dec 2023
- Bristol City 1–0 Norwich Feb 2023
- Norwich 3–2 Bristol City Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Norwich?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Norwich?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ashley Barnes at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.