Burnley v Cardiff City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Burnley lost to Cardiff City 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Lesley Ugochukwu for 1+ tackles (94%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesley Ugochukwu | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Zian Flemming | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lucas Pires | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Perry Ng | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Calum Chambers | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isaak Davies | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rubin Colwill | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bashir Humphreys | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joel Colwill | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 7 | ✓ |
| Hannibal Mejbri | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Shots total Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cardiff City 1–2 Burnley Mar 2025
- Burnley 5–0 Cardiff City Aug 2024
- Burnley 3–0 Cardiff City May 2023
- Cardiff City 1–1 Burnley Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Burnley v Cardiff City?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Burnley v Cardiff City?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.