Burnley v Derby County
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Burnley beat Derby County 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Zian Flemming for 1+ shots total (97%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Bobby Clark for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loum Tchaouna | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Zian Flemming | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bobby Clark | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ashley Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Armando Broja | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aaron Ramsey | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcus Edwards | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matt Clarke | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Ward | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dajaune Brown | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Weimann | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rhian Brewster | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Burnley 1–1 Derby County Sep 2026
- Derby County 0–0 Burnley Apr 2025
- Burnley 0–0 Derby County Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Burnley v Derby County?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Burnley v Derby County?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bobby Clark at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.