Cardiff City v Portsmouth
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cardiff City lost to Portsmouth 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Gavin Whyte for 1+ shots total (84%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Sheyi Ojo for 1+ tackles (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Whyte | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sheyi Ojo | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Ralls | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mark Harris | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Curtis Nelson | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mark Harris | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sheyi Ojo | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joe Ralls | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 6 | ✓ |
| Mark Harris | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gavin Whyte | tackles | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gavin Whyte | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Portsmouth 2–0 Cardiff City Sep 2026
- Portsmouth 2–1 Cardiff City Feb 2025
- Cardiff City 2–0 Portsmouth Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cardiff City v Portsmouth?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cardiff City v Portsmouth?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sheyi Ojo at 81% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.