Chelsea v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Chelsea lost to Arsenal 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Andrey Santos for 1+ tackles (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Mikel Merino for 1+ tackles (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Santos | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bukayo Saka | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martín Zubimendi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Fernández | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Declan Rice | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jurriën Timber | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ben White | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marc Cucurella | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marc Guiu | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Martinelli | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Estêvão | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea Sep 2026
- Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea Mar 2026
- Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea Feb 2026
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Nov 2025
- Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea Mar 2025
- Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Nov 2024
- Arsenal 5–0 Chelsea Apr 2024
- Chelsea 2–2 Arsenal Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Chelsea v Arsenal?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Chelsea v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mikel Merino at 94% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.