Chelsea v Brighton
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Chelsea beat Brighton 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being João Pedro for 1+ shots total (97%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Danny Welbeck for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ansu Fati | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Jackson | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Danny Welbeck | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Solly March | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Raheem Sterling | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marc Cucurella | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 9 | ✓ |
| Carlos Baleba | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ansu Fati | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Pedro | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cole Palmer | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Baleba | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Chelsea 4–3 Brighton Aug 2026
- Brighton 3–0 Chelsea Apr 2026
- Chelsea 1–3 Brighton Sep 2025
- Brighton 3–0 Chelsea Feb 2025
- Chelsea 4–2 Brighton Sep 2024
- Brighton 1–2 Chelsea May 2024
- Chelsea 3–2 Brighton Dec 2023
- Chelsea 1–2 Brighton Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Chelsea v Brighton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Chelsea v Brighton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Danny Welbeck at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.