Cheltenham Town v Exeter City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Whitworth | fouls drawn | 1+ | 14% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Whitworth | tackles | 1+ | 3% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Whitworth | fouls committed | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Whitworth | shots total | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Whitworth | shots on target | 1+ | 1% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cheltenham Town 0–7 Exeter City Aug 2022
Frequently asked
What is this Cheltenham Town v Exeter City page?
The model's read on the fixture: a modelled probability for each of the player and match markets that matter in a bet builder, ranked by how confident the model is. Once the game has been played, this same page shows what actually happened next to every call.
Is this a tip?
Graded in public, wins and losses alike. A probability is not advice and there is no price attached here — whether a market is worth backing depends on what the bookmaker is charging for it, which is the question the SharpXI tool answers rather than this page.
Where do the numbers come from?
Public match data for the teams and players involved, run through the same model used across the site — recent form shrunk toward the league average, adjusted for the opponent and the referee. The modelling guides explain each market in detail.
How accurate has the model been in the EFL Cup?
Every finished fixture on this site carries its own report card, and the season-long record for each market — the ones that beat a naive guess and the ones that don't — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.