Coventry City v Oxford United
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Coventry City beat Oxford United 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Kasey Palmer for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 2). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasey Palmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Peter Kioso | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Will Vaulks | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malcolm Ebiowei | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Brannagan | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Idris El Mizouni | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Owen Dale | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kasey Palmer | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Milan van Ewijk | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dane Scarlett | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Louie Sibley | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 0–0 Oxford United Feb 2026
- Oxford United 2–2 Coventry City Aug 2025
- Oxford United 2–3 Coventry City Mar 2025
- Coventry City 3–2 Oxford United Aug 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Coventry City v Oxford United?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Coventry City v Oxford United?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.