Derby County v West Brom
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Derby County beat West Brom 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Karlan Grant for 1+ shots total (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Grady Diangana for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 4 | ✓ |
| Karlan Grant | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| John Swift | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karlan Grant | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Robinson | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Grady Diangana | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Livermore | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Reach | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Grady Diangana | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matt Phillips | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matt Phillips | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Grady Diangana | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Livermore | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adam Reach | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Derby County 0–1 West Brom Sep 2026
- Derby County 1–1 West Brom Jan 2026
- West Brom 0–1 Derby County Sep 2025
- West Brom 1–1 Derby County Aug 2025
- West Brom 1–3 Derby County Apr 2025
- Derby County 2–1 West Brom Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Derby County v West Brom?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Derby County v West Brom?
The most confident call it got wrong was Grady Diangana at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.