Fulham v Tottenham
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Fulham drew with Tottenham 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being João Palhinha for 1+ tackles (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Rodrigo Muniz for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Palhinha | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Harry Wilson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Cairney | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Muniz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kenny Tete | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Muniz | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Emerson Royal | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kenny Tete | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adama Traoré | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Richarlison | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Muniz | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Skipp | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giovani Lo Celso | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Richarlison | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls drawn Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Fulham 2–1 Tottenham Mar 2026
- Tottenham 1–2 Fulham Nov 2025
- Fulham 2–0 Tottenham Mar 2025
- Tottenham 1–1 Fulham Dec 2024
- Fulham 3–0 Tottenham Mar 2024
- Tottenham 2–0 Fulham Oct 2023
- Fulham 0–1 Tottenham Jan 2023
- Tottenham 2–1 Fulham Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Fulham v Tottenham?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Fulham v Tottenham?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rodrigo Muniz at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.