Hull City v Sheffield Wednesday
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hull City lost to Sheffield Wednesday 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Djeidi Gassama for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Michael Smith for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Smith | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Djeidi Gassama | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Djeidi Gassama | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Olaf Kobacki | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Smith | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bailey Cadamarteri | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Will Jarvis | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Óscar Estupiñán | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Paterson | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyrell Sellars-Fleming | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdülkadir Ömür | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pol Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Liam Millar | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bailey Cadamarteri | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hull City 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday Mar 2026
- Sheffield Wednesday 2–2 Hull City Dec 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Hull City Apr 2025
- Hull City 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday Nov 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 3–1 Hull City Jan 2024
- Hull City 4–2 Sheffield Wednesday Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hull City v Sheffield Wednesday?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hull City v Sheffield Wednesday?
The most confident call it got wrong was Michael Smith at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.