Man City v Brentford
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Man City beat Brentford 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Michael Kayode for 1+ tackles (88%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mikkel Damsgaard for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kayode | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yehor Yarmoliuk | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kristoffer Ajer | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Phil Foden | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vitaly Janelt | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rayan Cherki | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nico O'Reilly | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sávio | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nico González | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Jensen | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nico González | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rico Henry | tackles | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man City 3–0 Brentford May 2026
- Brentford 0–1 Man City Oct 2025
- Brentford 2–2 Man City Jan 2025
- Man City 2–1 Brentford Sep 2024
- Man City 1–0 Brentford Feb 2024
- Brentford 1–3 Man City Feb 2024
- Brentford 1–0 Man City May 2023
- Man City 1–2 Brentford Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Man City v Brentford?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Man City v Brentford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mikkel Damsgaard at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.