Man Utd v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Man Utd beat Aston Villa 4–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Boubacar Kamara for 1+ tackles (88%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Danny Ings for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Ings | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Boubacar Kamara | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emiliano Buendía | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Ramsey | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| John McGinn | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ollie Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leon Bailey | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Emiliano Buendía | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Scott McTominay | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Douglas Luiz | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fred | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bruno Fernandes | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyrell Malacia | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ashley Young | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man Utd 3–1 Aston Villa Mar 2026
- Aston Villa 2–1 Man Utd Dec 2025
- Man Utd 2–0 Aston Villa May 2025
- Aston Villa 0–0 Man Utd Oct 2024
- Aston Villa 1–2 Man Utd Feb 2024
- Man Utd 3–2 Aston Villa Dec 2023
- Man Utd 1–0 Aston Villa Apr 2023
- Aston Villa 3–1 Man Utd Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Man Utd v Aston Villa?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Man Utd v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Danny Ings at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.