EFL Cup 23/24

Man Utd v Crystal Palace

How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.

Man Utd3 – 0 Crystal Palace 26 Sep 2023

9~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Man Utd beat Crystal Palace 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Casemiro for 1+ tackles (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Sofyan Amrabat for 1+ fouls committed (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials

Michael Salisbury refereed this match

9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Casemiro	tackles	1+	94%	2	✓
Alejandro Garnacho	shots total	1+	92%	2	✓
Jordan Ayew	fouls drawn	1+	91%	4	✓
Sofyan Amrabat	fouls committed	1+	91%	0	✗
Will Hughes	tackles	1+	90%	1	✓
Diogo Dalot	tackles	1+	88%	5	✓
Cheick Doucouré	tackles	1+	88%	2	✓
Anthony Martial	shots total	1+	84%	1	✓
Eberechi Eze	shots total	1+	84%	0	✗
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi	tackles	1+	84%	0	✗
Jeffrey Schlupp	tackles	1+	84%	1	✓
Jean-Philippe Mateta	shots total	1+	83%	2	✓
Casemiro	fouls committed	1+	82%	0	✗
Mason Mount	fouls committed	1+	82%	0	✗

How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed

Dig deeper

Man Utd & Crystal Palace player stats→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Man Utd v Crystal Palace?

9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Man Utd v Crystal Palace?

The most confident call it got wrong was Sofyan Amrabat at 91% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works