Newcastle v Arsenal
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Newcastle beat Arsenal 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Thomas Partey for 1+ tackles (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mikel Merino for 1+ tackles (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Partey | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raheem Sterling | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kieran Trippier | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kai Havertz | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Isak | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sandro Tonali | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leandro Trossard | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Martinelli | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anthony Gordon | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mikel Merino | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jurriën Timber | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Apr 2026
- Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal Sep 2025
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle May 2025
- Arsenal 0–2 Newcastle Jan 2025
- Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal Nov 2024
- Arsenal 4–1 Newcastle Feb 2024
- Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal Nov 2023
- Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal May 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Newcastle v Arsenal?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Newcastle v Arsenal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mikel Merino at 89% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.