Newcastle v Crystal Palace
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Newcastle drew with Crystal Palace 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Joelinton for 1+ tackles (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Elliot Anderson for 1+ tackles (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
6 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joelinton | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jonjo Shelvey | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joelinton | fouls committed | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chris Wood | fouls committed | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sean Longstaff | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kieran Trippier | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matt Targett | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonjo Shelvey | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Longstaff | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamaal Lascelles | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle Apr 2026
- Newcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace Jan 2026
- Newcastle 5–0 Crystal Palace Apr 2025
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Newcastle Nov 2024
- Crystal Palace 2–0 Newcastle Apr 2024
- Newcastle 4–0 Crystal Palace Oct 2023
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Newcastle Jan 2023
- Newcastle 0–0 Crystal Palace Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Newcastle v Crystal Palace?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Newcastle v Crystal Palace?
The most confident call it got wrong was Elliot Anderson at 94% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.