Newcastle v Man City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Newcastle lost to Man City 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Matheus Nunes for 1+ tackles (90%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Erling Haaland for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matheus Nunes | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico O'Reilly | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodri | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Miley | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lewis Hall | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Antoine Semenyo | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Phil Foden | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joelinton | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tijjani Reijnders | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yoane Wissa | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Harvey Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Doku | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man City 2–1 Newcastle Feb 2026
- Man City 3–1 Newcastle Feb 2026
- Newcastle 2–1 Man City Nov 2025
- Man City 4–0 Newcastle Feb 2025
- Newcastle 1–1 Man City Sep 2024
- Newcastle 2–3 Man City Jan 2024
- Newcastle 1–0 Man City Sep 2023
- Man City 1–0 Newcastle Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Newcastle v Man City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Newcastle v Man City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Erling Haaland at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.