Norwich v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Norwich lost to Southampton 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Shea Charles for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Flynn Downes for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Charles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Chrisene | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kenny McLean | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ross Stewart | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Flynn Downes | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Kvistgaarden | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matěj Jurásek | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jovon Makama | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mirko Topić | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ante Crnac | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kenny McLean | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryan Manning | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ruairi McConville | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Gibbs | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Tackles Shots total Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 1–0 Norwich Mar 2026
- Norwich 2–1 Southampton Dec 2025
- Norwich 1–1 Southampton Jan 2024
- Southampton 4–4 Norwich Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Norwich v Southampton?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Norwich v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Flynn Downes at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.