Nottingham Forest v Burnley
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nottingham Forest lost to Burnley 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Jay Rodriguez for 1+ shots total (89%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Neco Williams for 1+ tackles (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neco Williams | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay Rodriguez | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Yates | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Willy Boly | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anthony Elanga | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jóhann Guðmundsson | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aaron Ramsey | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Brownhill | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Montiel | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Moussa Niakhaté | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryan Yates | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charlie Taylor | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Redmond | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley Apr 2026
- Burnley 1–1 Nottingham Forest Sep 2025
- Burnley 1–2 Nottingham Forest May 2024
- Nottingham Forest 1–1 Burnley Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nottingham Forest v Burnley?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nottingham Forest v Burnley?
The most confident call it got wrong was Neco Williams at 94% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.