Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield Wednesday drew with Leeds 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Lukas Nmecha for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Wilfried Gnonto for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Nmecha | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sean Fusire | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lukas Nmecha | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Noah Okafor | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ike Ugbo | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Reece Johnson | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ernie Weaver | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brenden Aaronson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamal Lowe | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leeds 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday Jan 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds Aug 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds Mar 2024
- Leeds 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds?
The most confident call it got wrong was Wilfried Gnonto at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.