Stevenage v Reading
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stevenage lost to Reading 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Jacob Brown for 1+ shots total (83%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jordan Houghton for 1+ tackles (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
1 match on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Houghton | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Brown | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Knight | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Knight | tackles | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Earthy | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Randell Williams | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Earthy | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Randell Williams | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Conor Masterson | tackles | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Brown | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Randell Williams | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paddy Lane | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Houghton | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Reading 1–2 Stevenage Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stevenage v Reading?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stevenage v Reading?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordan Houghton at 81% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.