Stoke City v Hull City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City drew with Hull City 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being George Hirst for 1+ shots total (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Sam Gallagher for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hirst | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cody Drameh | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lucas Gourna-Douath | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Djibril Soumaré | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kieran Dowell | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Gourna-Douath | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Galbraith | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Akintola | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ben Pearson | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 5 | ✓ |
| Bosun Lawal | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hull City 0–1 Stoke City Jan 2026
- Stoke City 1–2 Hull City Nov 2025
- Hull City 1–2 Stoke City Feb 2025
- Stoke City 1–3 Hull City Sep 2024
- Hull City 0–2 Stoke City Mar 2024
- Stoke City 1–3 Hull City Sep 2023
- Stoke City 0–0 Hull City Feb 2023
- Hull City 0–3 Stoke City Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Hull City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Hull City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sam Gallagher at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.