Stoke City v Rotherham United
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City beat Rotherham United 6–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Tom Eaves for 1+ fouls committed (92%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jordan Thompson for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Eaves | fouls committed | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wouter Burger | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mehdi Léris | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ki-Jana Hoever | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Thompson | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke McNally | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fred Onyedinma | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fred Onyedinma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Souleymane Sidibe | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fred Onyedinma | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rotherham United 0–1 Stoke City Jan 2024
- Stoke City 4–1 Rotherham United Aug 2023
- Rotherham United 2–2 Stoke City Dec 2022
- Stoke City 0–1 Rotherham United Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Rotherham United?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Rotherham United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordan Thompson at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.