Swansea City v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Swansea City lost to Birmingham City 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Melker Widell for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Demarai Gray for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melker Widell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Demarai Gray | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| August Priske | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Idah | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Žan Vipotnik | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marko Stamenić | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lee Buchanan | tackles | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlos Vicente | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlos Vicente | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leo Walta | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Demarai Gray | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay Fulton | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Fouls committed Tackles
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Swansea City 1–1 Birmingham City Jan 2026
- Birmingham City 1–0 Swansea City Sep 2025
- Birmingham City 2–2 Swansea City Jan 2024
- Swansea City 1–1 Birmingham City Aug 2023
- Swansea City 3–4 Birmingham City Feb 2023
- Birmingham City 2–2 Swansea City Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Swansea City v Birmingham City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Swansea City v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Demarai Gray at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.