Tottenham v Man Utd
How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Tottenham beat Man Utd 4–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Antony for 1+ shots total (97%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Alejandro Garnacho for 1+ shots total (97%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Garnacho | shots total | 1+ | 97% | 0 | ✗ |
| Noussair Mazraoui | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Yves Bissouma | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Manuel Ugarte | tackles | 1+ | 94% | 7 | ✓ |
| Bruno Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| James Maddison | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Garnacho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antony | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amad Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 5 | ✓ |
| Joshua Zirkzee | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antony | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Antony | shots on target | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Son Heung-min | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Man Utd 2–0 Tottenham Feb 2026
- Tottenham 2–2 Man Utd Nov 2025
- Tottenham 1–0 Man Utd May 2025
- Tottenham 1–0 Man Utd Feb 2025
- Man Utd 0–3 Tottenham Sep 2024
- Man Utd 2–2 Tottenham Jan 2024
- Tottenham 2–0 Man Utd Aug 2023
- Tottenham 2–2 Man Utd Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Tottenham v Man Utd?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Tottenham v Man Utd?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alejandro Garnacho at 97% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.