EFL Cup 25/26

Wolves v West Ham

How the SharpXI model rated this EFL Cup fixture — every call it made on shots, fouls and tackles, set against what actually happened on the day.

Wolves3 – 2 West Ham 26 Aug 2025

13~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Wolves beat West Ham 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being André for 1+ tackles (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Lucas Paquetá for 1+ fouls drawn (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials

Darren England refereed this match

5 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
André	tackles	1+	94%	2	✓
Jhon Arias	shots total	1+	92%	5	✓
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	fouls drawn	1+	90%	1	✓
Guido Rodríguez	tackles	1+	90%	4	✓
Lucas Paquetá	fouls drawn	1+	90%	0	✗
Fer López	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Lucas Paquetá	tackles	1+	88%	1	✓
Santiago Bueno	tackles	1+	88%	2	✓
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	tackles	1+	88%	2	✓
Jean-Clair Todibo	tackles	1+	88%	2	✓
Jhon Arias	shots on target	1+	86%	2	✓
Jarrod Bowen	shots total	1+	84%	1	✓
Rodrigo Gomes	shots total	1+	84%	1	✓
Hwang Hee-chan	shots total	1+	83%	3	✓

How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target

Dig deeper

Wolves & West Ham player stats→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Wolves v West Ham?

13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Wolves v West Ham?

The most confident call it got wrong was Lucas Paquetá at 90% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the EFL Cup?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works