Oliver Yates
Over the last 6 EFL Cup games Oliver Yates has officiated, the average is 4.50 cards a match — 37% above the league average of 3.29. That's 4.5 yellow a game, with no red card in the 6. The home side sees more cards — 2.0 to 2.5 a game, a sharper split than the league's 0.1 gap. 5+ cards landed in 67% of those games (4 of 6), from a 20.1% foul-to-booking rate. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 6 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Oliver Yates turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every EFL Cup season on record.
| Measure | Yates | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.50 | 3.29 |
| vs league | 1.37× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 20.1% | 15.7% |
| Fouls / match | 22.3 | 21.0 |
| Red cards shown | 0 | — |
| Matches on record | 6 (1 in 26/27) | — |
Recent matches
The last 6 EFL Cup games Oliver Yates took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester v Northampton Town8 Aug | 1–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| Wigan Athletic v Notts County12 Aug | 1–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 26 |
| Preston North End v Sunderland13 Aug | 2–0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 25 |
| Bristol City v Oxford United9 Aug | 5–1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| Walsall v Charlton Athletic23 Aug | 0–1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| Luton v Newport County9 Aug | 2–3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 23 |
● a red card in that match
Oliver Yates has officiated only 6 matches on our record — a thin sample. The model shrinks a thin referee tendency toward the league average and discounts its confidence until the evidence builds, so read the numbers above gently.
Frequently asked
How many cards does Oliver Yates give per game?
Oliver Yates averages 4.50 cards a game across 6 EFL Cup matches — 37% above the league average of 3.29. That's a raw rate from only 6 matches, so the model shrinks it toward the league average rather than trusting it outright.
Is Oliver Yates a strict referee?
Yes. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Oliver Yates runs at 20.1% against a league average of 15.7%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Oliver Yates's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Oliver Yates's card rate?
It rests on 6 career matches, still a thin sample — read it gently. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.